Is Steve Johnson The Real Deal?

Is Steve Johnson The Real Deal?

By Kwame Flaherty On: Jul 22, 2011 1:46 AM

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Budding superstar or one-year aberration. Which is Stevie Johnson?

One of the biggest surprises of the 2010 NFL season was the emergence of Buffalo Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson. After two non-descript seasons compiling 12 receptions and 112 receiving yards, Johnson blossomed, catching 82 passes for 1073 yards and 10 touchdowns. Johnson had one of the most impressive individual performances of the 2010 campaign: an 8 catch, 137 yard, 3 touchdown masterpiece in a Bills comeback victory against the Bengals. Add some interesting twitter comments and a premeditated touchdown celebration, and Steve Johnson fits the profile of the modern, big play NFL wide receiver.

But how good was Johnson’s 2010 season, and can he sustain this level of production? Cynics will say that Johnson’s numbers were inflated. They will claim that he gained meaningless yards while on the losing end of blowouts. Johnson’s supporters will say he’s a budding superstar who had a breakout season. Who’s right?

How did Steve Johnson go from being Roscoe Parrish’s back-up to out-producing players like Miles Austin and Brandon Marshall? Simply put, he seized the opportunity. Johnson was part of the rotation at wide receiver early in the season, but he didn’t become a full time starter until the 6th game of the season. Although Johnson is a young player and didn’t have a track record of success in the NFL, the Bills didn’t spoon feed Johnson. Once Johnson became a starter, the Bills featured him heavily in their passing game and he delivered.

Games	Total Targets	Rec/Yards/TDs
Game 1-4	22	12/ 168/ 2
Game 5-8	43	29/386/4
Game 9-11	38	20/278/3
Game 11-16	39	21/241/1

Were Johnson’s contributions relevant? The Bills were 4-12 in 2010 and outscored by 142 points. Only the Cardinals and Panthers were worse in net points. It would seem safe to assume that Johnson padded his stats against teams playing prevent defense, waiting for the clock to expire.

Surprisingly, the Bills were competitive in the majority of their games.

There were five games where Buffalo was completely outclassed: both games against the New York Jets (week 4 and week 17), week 2 versus Green Bay, week 13 against Minnesota and week 16 versus the Patriots. In the other 11 games, only one game that was decided by more than 10 points; the Bills come from behind victory in Cincinnati. Steve Johnson didn’t benefit from the “garbage time” effect.

In the five blowout losses, Johnson totaled 18 receptions for 228 yards and 1 touchdown. Johnson made the majority of his big plays while the outcome of the game was still in doubt.

Wins: 22/285/4

Close Losses: 42/788/5

Blow-Out Losses: 18/228/1

Bills fans have a legitimate reason to be excited about Steve Johnson. He doesn’t have elite speed (he ran a 4.59 40 at the 2008 NFL combine), but he has good quickness and is outstanding in the open field, evidenced by his 400 yards after the catch in 2010 (6th among wide receivers). Johnson is also a good red zone target, catching half of his touchdowns inside the 20 yard line. Steve Johnson was an afterthought as a seventh-round draft pick in 2008. But now, heading into the 2011 season, Johnson is one of the best, young receivers in the NFL.

Kwame Flaherty covers all aspects of NFL Football for OnsideKick, with a focus on Xs and Os and statistical analysis. Kwame has an extensive background in professional sports, having worked for the NBA, New York Jets and Madison Square Garden. He is also a volunteer and contributor for FootballOutsiders.com game charting project. He can be reached at kwamef@onsidekick.com.