Two AFC South running backs present a tough choice for fantasy owners

If you are looking to decide on running backs when your fantasy drafts come around there are going to be two running backs in the AFC South that will make you consider taking them high in the Draft. Maurice Jones-Drew of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Arian Foster of the Houston Texans both are running backs that have the potential to carry you to your league championship and both have the ability to cause you headaches because of a potential slippage in production in the upcoming season. Which one has the better opportunity to provide both your team, and their respective NFL teams, success in 2011? Here is a breakdown of the two and which one is destined for a bigger season.

Maurice Jones-Drew

After previous seasons of lighting up defenses with both high yardage totals and high scoring totals, the 2010 season left fantasy owners lacking. Jones-Drew’s went from scoring 16 touchdowns in 2009 to only scoring 7 in 2010. Looking deeper into the numbers, however, reveals that maybe there is not a drastic drop-off after all. The number of carries and the amount of times he was thrown the ball are almost exactly the same from 2009 to 2010. The numbers also show that the yards per carry and the yards per catch were almost completely the same from year to year. His usage in the offense was exactly the same, but his touches in the end zone dropped off. What all of that means is that Jones-Drew would appear to be capable of another consistent year and that the drop off in touchdowns was a fluke in 2010.

Jones-Drew still appears to have a lot of miles on his tires, despite persistent concerns over knee troubles. If Jones-Drew were approaching that 30-year old mark you would have reason to be concerned for his production possibly dropping off. Jones-Drew will only be 26 for the upcoming season, so there are still a lot of yards to be compiled by the Jaguars running back.

The only major concern that you should have about Jones-Drew in 2011 is that the Jaguars schedule from a running perspective is brutal. The Jaguars schedule has them matched up with the AFC North teams as well as the NFC South. Anytime you are adding run defenses like the Ravens and Steelers that could make for some rough afternoons. In addition, the Jaguars will also be playing two of the top 4 run defenses from last season in the Jets and Chargers. All of that could add up to a slower season from a scoring perspective than what you would hope for from Jones-Drew.

The only other concern that you should have about Jones-Drew is that Rashad Jennings did become a little bit of a touchdown vulture in 2010. Jennings was used down around the goal line and is a nice player to tie to Jones-Drew later in your Draft.

In the end you should expect about the same type of yardage for Jones-Drew as you got from previous seasons. Expect about 1200 yards rushing, another 350 receiving and about 10 touchdowns.

Arian Foster

The name that exploded on the scene in 2010 from a running back perspective was Arian Foster from the Houston Texans. Foster was explosive in one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. Foster had 18 touchdowns and accounted for over 2,200 yards from scrimmage. The 66 receptions were also a great number for a running back in only his second season in the league.

Looking into the future, Foster appears to be a solid pick again, but do realize that Foster’s schedule is much tougher than last year’s with the addition of having to play the AFC North teams in 2011. What is encouraging for people who would consider drafting Foster early is that Foster did damage against all types of opponents no matter how great their defense was.

When you are looking to project for Foster in 2011, you would have to consider that there will be a drop off, but it shouldn’t be significant. It seems safe to count on Foster producing around 1,400 yards rushing with an additional 500 yards in receiving. 18 touchdowns is probably a little too much to ask, but with the options that the Texans have you can expect that there will be a total somewhere in the 14-17 range.

Jones-Drew vs. Foster

Because both of these guys’ teams have similar, tougher schedules, you should expect both to drop a little in production in 2011, but not by much. Both are worthy candidates to be high round draft picks in your fantasy league. If you had to the opportunity to pick one over the other you should definitely go with Foster because of the offense that he is playing in. The Texans are a dynamic offense that will put points and yards on the board most weeks. The Jaguars current quarterback situation is still up in the air and the offense has not been able to produce as highly as the Texans. Of course, part of the fun of fantasy football is that choices like this are never easy. Those quick to point out recent concerns over Maurice Jones-Drew’s knee also would be wise to recall that Arian Foster is no stranger to the injury bug, either. He revealed that he played the entire 2010 season with a torn meniscus in his own knee (he had surgery to repair it February 2011). He also had surgery several years earlier while playing college ball at the University of Tennessee.

Both are excellent options for your fantasy team and both are in for good years, but if you are looking for one to have a better year than the other than you should definitely bet on Arian Foster beating out Jones-Drew.